|
摘要：過去2個(gè)半月豆粕上漲1000-1100元/噸，華北玉米上漲了350-400元/噸，麥麩價(jià)格上漲了250元/噸。飼料原料全線上漲，噸飼料生產(chǎn)成本飆升了300-350元/噸，飼料加工毛利潤銳減至正常水平，并且仍有下降趨勢，行業(yè)經(jīng)營難度增加，中短期可以充分利用當(dāng)前下游養(yǎng)殖利潤良好環(huán)境進(jìn)行提價(jià)，但我們需要看到過去幾年養(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張主要集中在大型養(yǎng)殖集團(tuán)，大部分具有飼料生產(chǎn)能力，可供飼料企業(yè)市場空間下降，產(chǎn)能過剩壓力，預(yù)計(jì)2016年下半年至2017年全年飼料加工行業(yè)兼并整合加快。
一、 我國飼料行業(yè)發(fā)展情況
1.1國內(nèi)飼料行業(yè)發(fā)展總況
2015年全國商品飼料總產(chǎn)量20009萬噸，同比增長1.4%。其中，配合飼料產(chǎn)量為17396.2萬噸，同比增長2.7%；濃縮飼料產(chǎn)量為1960.5萬噸，同比下降8.9%；添加劑預(yù)混合飼料產(chǎn)量為652.5萬噸，同比增長1.9%。
配合飼料、濃縮飼料、添加劑預(yù)混合飼料產(chǎn)量占商品飼料總產(chǎn)量比重分別為86.9%、9.8%、3.3%，與上年比，配合飼料占總產(chǎn)量比重提高1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，濃縮飼料下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，添加劑預(yù)混合飼料提高0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。配合飼料、濃縮飼料、添加劑預(yù)混合飼料三者比例為26.6:3.0:1，上年度為26.4:3.4:1。
截至2015年年末，全國飼料和飼料添加劑生產(chǎn)企業(yè)數(shù)量為13236家。其中，飼料添加劑（含混合型飼料添加劑）企業(yè)1691家，添加劑預(yù)混合飼料企業(yè)2747家，濃縮飼料、配合飼料和精料補(bǔ)充料企業(yè)6764家，單一飼料企業(yè)2034家。
1.2 預(yù)混料行業(yè)發(fā)展情況
2015年，添加劑預(yù)混合飼料產(chǎn)量為652.5萬噸，同比增長1.9%添加劑預(yù)混合飼料產(chǎn)量占商品飼料總產(chǎn)量比重分別為3.3%，與上年比，添加劑預(yù)混合飼料提高0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
1.3濃縮料發(fā)展情況
2015年，全國濃縮料產(chǎn)量為為1960.5萬噸，同比下降8.9%，濃縮飼料占商品飼料總產(chǎn)量比重分別為9.8%，與上年比，濃縮飼料下降1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
1.4配合料發(fā)展情況
2015年，全國配合飼料產(chǎn)量為17396.2萬噸，同比增長2.7%，配合飼料占商品飼料總產(chǎn)量比重分別為86.9%，與上年比，配合飼料占總產(chǎn)量比重提高1.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)
1.5分品種飼料發(fā)展情況
從品種總量看，2015年，豬飼料產(chǎn)量8343.6萬噸，同比下降3.2%；蛋禽飼料產(chǎn)量3019.8萬噸，同比增長4.1%；肉禽飼料產(chǎn)量5514.8萬噸，同比增長9.6%；水產(chǎn)飼料產(chǎn)量1893.1萬噸，同比下降0.5%；反芻動物飼料產(chǎn)量884.2萬噸，同比增長0.9%；其他飼料產(chǎn)量353.7萬噸，同比下降10.9%。
1.5.1豬料發(fā)展情況
2015年，豬飼料產(chǎn)量8343.6萬噸，同比下降3.2%，2014年年末國內(nèi)豬價(jià)復(fù)制了2013年末豬價(jià)下跌走勢，下跌時(shí)間有所提前，元旦后，生豬養(yǎng)殖進(jìn)入行業(yè)性虧損。仔豬價(jià)格較大豬提前下跌，2014年4季度母豬繁育逐步出現(xiàn)虧損，進(jìn)入12月至春節(jié)期間母豬繁育理論虧損達(dá)到500-1000元/窩，實(shí)際虧損更大，養(yǎng)殖戶淘汰母豬意愿增加，能繁母豬淘汰速度加快，母豬存欄量偏低，加上2015年整體環(huán)保政策偏緊，禁養(yǎng)政策以及南方水網(wǎng)整治工作導(dǎo)致整體產(chǎn)能恢復(fù)緩慢，官方數(shù)據(jù)至2015年年底，能繁母豬出現(xiàn)連續(xù)26個(gè)月下滑。2015年3季度生豬景氣度提升，2016年上半年養(yǎng)殖壓欄情況等，預(yù)計(jì)2016年豬料需求顯著提升，產(chǎn)量也將出現(xiàn)5%左右增幅。
1.5.2肉、蛋禽料發(fā)展情況
2015年，蛋禽飼料產(chǎn)量3019.8萬噸，同比增長4.1%。2015年，肉禽飼料產(chǎn)量5514.8萬噸，同比增長9.6%。近幾年禽料產(chǎn)量總體呈現(xiàn)下降主要由于禽流感影響了養(yǎng)殖戶養(yǎng)殖意愿因素。
1.5.3反芻料
2015年，反芻動物飼料產(chǎn)量884.2萬噸，同比增長0.9%。養(yǎng)殖行業(yè)整體呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步增加，并有持續(xù)增加趨勢。
二、 2013年至今國內(nèi)飼料行業(yè)加工毛利率變化
2013、4年中隨著飼料原料價(jià)格整體走低，飼料價(jià)格逐步調(diào)低，特別進(jìn)入2015年后，飼料價(jià)格多次調(diào)低，截止2016年初豬料及禽料價(jià)格普遍較2013年最高價(jià)下調(diào)近20%，但由于原料價(jià)格跌幅大于飼料價(jià)格跌幅，飼料加工毛利潤大增。2016年4月份后隨著豆粕價(jià)格快速反彈，華北玉米價(jià)格也強(qiáng)勢上漲，短短2個(gè)月飼料加工利潤暴跌了50%，回落到正常區(qū)間水平。
飼料原料成本壓力，飼料廠短期可以通過提高飼料價(jià)格來對沖部分壓力，但我們需要看到當(dāng)前國內(nèi)玉米庫存雖高，然而基本集中在國家手里，后期玉米既然出現(xiàn)下滑，也難跌破前期低位。豆粕方面其他蛋白原料供應(yīng)偏緊，南美大豆產(chǎn)量下降，支撐美豆上漲，國內(nèi)飼料需求強(qiáng)勢不排除后期豆粕價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲，進(jìn)一步極大了飼料企業(yè)原料生產(chǎn)壓力，擠壓飼料廠生存空間。
三、 當(dāng)前飼料行業(yè)發(fā)展瓶頸
2015年全國飼料工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值為7810億元，同比增長2.7%。其中，商品飼料工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值7126億元，同比增長2.7%；飼料添加劑總產(chǎn)值616億元，同比增長3.6%；飼料機(jī)械設(shè)備總產(chǎn)值68億元，同比增長1.4%。但我國飼料行業(yè)已成為我國重要的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)值一。飼料行業(yè)整體行業(yè)仍面臨著不少挑戰(zhàn)，如飼料原料問題、飼料安全問題
分區(qū)域來看，2015年8個(gè)省份飼料產(chǎn)量過千萬噸，8省飼料總產(chǎn)量為11744.9萬噸，占全國飼料總產(chǎn)量58.7%，同比增長2.5%。其中，廣東、山東飼料產(chǎn)量過兩千萬噸，分別達(dá)到2573.0萬噸和2288.1萬噸，2015年，七大經(jīng)濟(jì)帶產(chǎn)量，華東地區(qū)（上海、江蘇、浙江、安徽、福建、山東）飼料產(chǎn)量占全國飼料總產(chǎn)量26.1%，為七大區(qū)域之首。其次是華中地區(qū)（河南、湖北、湖南、江西）、華南地區(qū)（廣東、海南、廣西）占全國總產(chǎn)量比重分別為19.8%、19.2%。2015年國家實(shí)施更為嚴(yán)厲的環(huán)保政策，華南及華東地區(qū)養(yǎng)殖將受限，部分養(yǎng)殖場只能通過外遷，影響該地區(qū)飼料行業(yè)發(fā)展。
四、 行業(yè)并購機(jī)會
我國飼料加工產(chǎn)能過剩，整體行業(yè)開工了在50%，飼料行業(yè)技術(shù)水平較低，特別是配合料，企業(yè)研發(fā)能力較差，原料采購成本也存在明顯差異，飼料原料強(qiáng)勢上漲，市場份額縮小環(huán)境下，行業(yè)并購情況將出現(xiàn)，其中華南及華東地區(qū)并購增加，中部地區(qū)及西部地區(qū)企業(yè)新建產(chǎn)能也有望增加。
The English version
Abstract: in the past two and a half months rising soybean meal 1000-1100 yuan/ton, the north China corn rose by 350-400 yuan/ton, wheat bran prices rose 250 yuan/ton. Feed raw materials rose broadly, tons of feed production costs surged 300-350 yuan/ton, feed processing gross margin declined to normal levels, and there is still a downward trend, industry management difficulty increases, the short to medium term can make full use of current downstream breeding profit good environment for raising prices, but we need to see over the past few years breeding capacity expansion mainly concentrated in large breeding groups, most have feed production ability, to feed the enterprise market space, excess capacity pressures, is expected in the second half of 2016 to 2017, the year feed processing industry consolidation to speed up.
A, the feed industry development of our country
1.1 total domestic feed industry development
In 2015, the commercial feed production 200.09 million tons, up 1.4% from a year earlier. Among them, compound feed production is 173.962 million tons, up 2.7%; Concentrated feed production is 19.605 million tons, fell 8.9% year on year; Premixed feed additives production is 6.525 million tons, up 1.9% from a year earlier.
Compound feed, concentrated feed, premixed feed additives production goods feed production proportion of 86.9%, 9.8% and 3.3%, respectively, than with the previous year, compound feed proportion of total output increased by 1.1%, dropped 1.1%, and the concentrated feed additive premix feed increased by 0.1%. Compound feed, concentrated feed and additive premixed feed ratio is 26.6:3.0:1, the year of 26.4:3.4:1.
By the end of 2015, the national feed and feed additives production enterprise number for 13236. Among them, the feed additives (including mixed feed additive) enterprises, 1691, 2747 additive premix feed enterprises, concentrated feed, compound feed and concentrate 6764 supplementary material enterprises, 2034 single feed enterprises.
1.2 premix industry development
In 2015, premixed feed additives production is 6.525 million tons, up 1.9% year on year premixed feed additives production proportion of total goods feed production were 3.3%, than with the previous year, additive premix feed increased by 0.1%.
 1.3 development concentrates
In 2015, the enrichment of material production to 19.605 million tons, down 8.9% year-on-year, concentrated feed proportion was 9.8%, total goods feed production than with the previous year, a 1.1% drop in concentrated feed.
 1.4 cooperate with material development
In 2015, the compound feed production is 173.962 million tons, up 2.7% from a year earlier, compound feed proportion of total goods feed production were 86.9%, than with the previous year, compound feed proportion of total output increased by 1.1%
 1.5 varieties feed development
From the total varieties, 2015, 83.436 million tons of pig feed production, fell 3.2% year on year; Egg feed production 30.198 million tons, up 4.1%; Meat and poultry feed production 55.148 million tons, up 9.6%; Aquatic feed production 18.931 million tons, fell 0.5% year on year; Ruminant feed production 8.842 million tons, up 0.9%; Other feed production 3.537 million tons, fell 10.9% year on year.
1.5.1 pig feed development
In 2015, 83.436 million tons of pig feed production, fell 3.2% year on year, at the end of 2014, domestic prices copy at the end of 2013 prices fell, down time in advance, after the New Year's day, pig farming into an industry-wide losses. Piglets price large pig fell ahead of schedule, 4 quarter of 2014 sow breeding gradually loss, into the December to sow breeding theory losses during the Spring Festival of 500-1000 yuan/socket, the actual loss is bigger, the farmers are out of the sow will increase to numerous sows out faster, sow breeding stock is low, and in 2015 the overall environmental policy tight, ban policy and south water treatment cause the overall capacity recovery was slow, official data to the end of 2015, can appear numerous sows 26 consecutive month of decline. The boom of 3 quarter of 2015 pigs, breeding pressure bar, etc., in the first half of 2016 is expected to 2016 swine feeding significantly increased demand, production also will appear about 5% growth.
1.5.2 the material development of meat, egg
In 2015, egg feed production 30.198 million tons, up 4.1% from a year earlier. In 2015, meat and poultry feed production 55.148 million tons, up 9.6% from a year earlier. Poultry feed production in recent years, the overall decline in the main factors affecting the farmers breeding will due to bird flu.
 1.5.3 ruminant material
In 2015, the ruminant feed production 8.842 million tons, up 0.9% from a year earlier. Aquaculture industry as a whole a steady increase, and the increasing trend.
 2, 2013 to present domestic feed industry processing changes in gross margin
2013, four years as feed raw materials prices overall fall, feed prices gradually lowered, especially into the 2015 years later, the feed prices down for many times, as of early 2016 pigs and poultry feed price is generally highest price cut nearly 20% in 2013, but due to the raw material price drop is greater than the feed prices drop, feed processing a huge increase in gross profit margin. In April 2016 as soybean meal prices rebound quickly, after the north China strong corn prices also rose, feed processing profits plunged 50% in just 2 months, back to normal range rate.
 Short-term can feed the raw material cost pressure, feed mills to hedge some of this pressure by increasing feed prices, but we need to see the current domestic corn stocks are high, basic in state hands, however, since late corn fell, also hard to below the previous low. Other protein soybean meal of raw material supply tight, South American soybean production, support the beans rise, strong domestic demand for feed does not exclude the late soybean meal prices continue to rise, further greatly the raw material to produce feed enterprises pressure, extrusion feed mills living space.
 Three, the current feed industry development bottleneck
2015 national feed gross industrial output value is 781 billion yuan, up 2.7% from a year earlier. Among them, the commodity feed gross value of industrial output 712.6 billion yuan, up 2.7%; Feed additive output value 61.6 billion yuan, up 3.6%; Feed machinery equipment output value 6.8 billion yuan, up 1.4% from a year earlier. But China's feed industry has become an important pillar industry of the our country values a. Feed industry as a whole industry still faces many challenges, such as feed ingredients, feed safety problems points area, 2015, eight provinces feed production ten million tons, eight provinces of feed production is 117.449 million tons, accounting for 58.7% of total feed production, up 2.5% from a year earlier. Among them, guangdong, shandong feed production twenty million tons, 25.73 million tons and 25.73 million tons, in 2015, seven major economic belt production, in east China (Shanghai, jiangsu, zhejiang, anhui, fujian, shandong) feed production accounted for 26.1% of total feed production for first seven large area. Followed by the central China, henan, hubei, hunan, jiangxi), south China (guangdong, hainan, guangxi) accounts for the proportion of total output of 19.8%, 19.2% respectively. 2015 countries implement the tougher environmental policy, south China and east China will be limited, part of 12 only through farms, feed industry development in the region.
Four, industry m&a opportunities
Feed processing capacity in our country, the overall industry started at 50%, the feed industry technical level is low, especially, the batch of enterprise research and development ability is poorer, raw material procurement cost also exists obvious difference, feed raw materials strong gains, narrow market environment, industry mergers and acquisitions will appear, south China and east China mergers and acquisitions to increase, the central region and western region enterprises new capacity is expected to increase.
|
