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9月開始，玉米、豆粕這兩種主要的大宗原料價(jià)格走勢(shì)可謂“冰火兩重天”。玉米價(jià)格震蕩走低，豆粕則維持偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，而這種走勢(shì)在中秋節(jié)后尤為明顯。
一、玉米暴跌為哪般？
“一場(chǎng)秋雨一場(chǎng)寒”，用在現(xiàn)階段的玉米市場(chǎng)再合適不過。自9月開始，山東、河南、河北等地玉米價(jià)格率先進(jìn)入下行通道，盡管節(jié)前銷區(qū)、港口局地因優(yōu)質(zhì)糧源階段性供應(yīng)趨緊，而出現(xiàn)反彈現(xiàn)象，但仍抵擋不住華北產(chǎn)區(qū)玉米價(jià)格集中下滑，帶來(lái)的全國(guó)性利空打壓。行情寶數(shù)據(jù)顯示：截至9月18日，全國(guó)玉米均價(jià)約為1885元/噸，較月初下滑60元/噸。領(lǐng)跌全國(guó)的華北黃淮當(dāng)?shù)赜衩拙鶅r(jià)跌幅更是突破100元/噸。
導(dǎo)致該地玉米暴跌的主要原因有二：1、中秋期間，部分地區(qū)新玉米集中上市，企業(yè)采購(gòu)謹(jǐn)慎，打壓整個(gè)市場(chǎng)。2、政策糧投放熱情不減，臨儲(chǔ)玉米拍賣玉米執(zhí)行到10月，且單周投放增加總量至1000萬(wàn)噸。
二、豆粕漲價(jià)為哪般？
與玉米不同的是，國(guó)內(nèi)豆粕價(jià)格自9月初便開啟上漲模式。中秋節(jié)前因9月美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部報(bào)告上調(diào)美豆產(chǎn)量，導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)豆粕價(jià)格跟隨美豆期價(jià)出現(xiàn)小幅短暫回調(diào)，但節(jié)后依舊重拾漲勢(shì)。行情寶數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至9月18日，全國(guó)主要地區(qū)油廠豆粕主流成交均價(jià)約為3230元/噸，較月初上漲150元/噸。
引發(fā)上漲的原因可分為國(guó)外與國(guó)內(nèi)兩方面：1、國(guó)外：一個(gè)是美豆舊作出口需求強(qiáng)勁帶動(dòng)，另一個(gè)則是美豆產(chǎn)區(qū)天氣降雨對(duì)后期生長(zhǎng)擔(dān)憂，兩者共同作用下，抵消了報(bào)告帶來(lái)的利空影響，并帶動(dòng)期價(jià)再度反彈。2、國(guó)內(nèi)：近期進(jìn)口大豆到港量下滑，供應(yīng)現(xiàn)階段性緊張態(tài)勢(shì)，這是其一；其二，從目前油廠手中的未執(zhí)行合同數(shù)量來(lái)看，并不存在銷售壓力，因此挺價(jià)意愿較強(qiáng)。
三、其他飼料原料漲跌情況
乍一看，除豆粕漲價(jià)，棉粕穩(wěn)定以外，其他飼料原料均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑趨勢(shì)。麩皮價(jià)格較月初小幅走低，主要由于新玉米上市逐步增多以及面粉廠開工率提高給麩皮市場(chǎng)行情造成拖累。而DDGS跌勢(shì)較上月明顯放緩，一方面因庫(kù)存偏低，另一方面則是商務(wù)部更新DDGS雙反調(diào)查動(dòng)態(tài)，導(dǎo)致弱勢(shì)行情略有縮窄。
棉粕一直不溫不火，菜粕價(jià)格并未跟隨豆粕上漲腳步，價(jià)格小幅下跌；當(dāng)然，這與近期惡劣天氣影響水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖脫不開干系。另一個(gè)“靠天吃飯”的原料魚粉，同樣受到天氣影響，價(jià)格自8月開始急速下跌，旺季不旺的格局持續(xù)至今。
四、未來(lái)原料價(jià)格是漲是跌？
回過頭來(lái)，我們繼續(xù)分析最為重要的兩種大宗原料--豆粕、玉米。
對(duì)于玉米而言，不論是機(jī)構(gòu)、專家，乃至收糧的商販、賣糧的農(nóng)戶，想必都不看好后市。目前華北黃淮等地新玉米陸續(xù)上市，東北玉米集中上市要到11月左右，臨儲(chǔ)玉米拍賣也將持續(xù)到10月底，也就是東北玉米上市前。因此，行情寶認(rèn)為在這種供應(yīng)量持續(xù)增多的情況下，全國(guó)各地玉米價(jià)格將步入下行通道。
相比之下，豆粕價(jià)格未來(lái)一段時(shí)間將持續(xù)向好。利多市場(chǎng)的因素并非只集中在美豆方面，這回國(guó)內(nèi)供需面對(duì)豆粕價(jià)格起到了有利支撐作用。大豆進(jìn)口量減少、油廠豆粕庫(kù)存偏低、未執(zhí)行合同量增多，均導(dǎo)致豆粕價(jià)格短期內(nèi)將繼續(xù)走高。不過，油廠前期銷售9-10月基差過多，透支10月市場(chǎng)需求，對(duì)于豆粕長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)走勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè)：跛腳穿花鞋，我們邊走邊瞧！
The English version
September, corn, soybean meal, the two major commodities prices have "should". Corn prices shock slump, soybean meal will remain strong, and this kind of situation is especially obvious after the Mid-Autumn festival.
A, corn tumbled for our favorite stylemakers?
"A rain a cold", with good market in the present stage of corn. Since September, shandong, henan, hebei, corn prices took the lead into the downlink channel, although the first XiaoQu, port local because of the high quality stocks staged a tighter, and rebound phenomenon, but still not able to withstand the corn prices decline concentration of north China region, the national bearish. Market data shows: treasure as of September 18, the national average price of corn is about 1885 yuan/ton, the decline in early 60 yuan/ton. Led by the country's north huanghuai local corn average price decline is above 100 yuan/ton.
Result in the area of corn tumbled there are two main reasons: 1, during the Mid-Autumn festival, in parts of new corn concentration, enterprise procurement cautious, on the whole market. 2, policy of grain on the enthusiasm, storage in the corn execution auction to October, and weekly delivery increased amount to 10 million tons.
Second, the soybean meal price rises for our favorite stylemakers?
Unlike corn, domestic soybean meal prices since the beginning of September and opened up mode. Before the Mid-Autumn festival in September for the United States department of agriculture report raised the bean production, domestic soybean meal prices follow the bean futures appear slightly short callback, but after still return to rally. Market, according to data from the treasure as of September 18th, the main oil region soybean meal mainstream clinch a deal the average price is about 3230 yuan/ton, the early rise 150 yuan/ton.
Reason causing the rise could be divided into two aspects: foreign and domestic, abroad: one is the beautiful bean represented strong export demand driven, the other is American beans areas weather rain for later growth concerns, both, offset the report bring negative influence, and boost futures rebound again. 2, domestic: a recent decline in imports of soybeans to port, now the periodic tensions of supply, this is the first; Secondly, from the hand of the oil at present not to execute the contract number, there is no sales pressure, so pretty price will stronger.
Three, other feed ingredients or downward
At first glance, in addition to soybean meal price rises, stable cotton pulp, other feed ingredients are varying degrees of decline. Early bran price is slightly lower, mainly due to the new corn market gradually increased, and flour factory starts to increase bran market a drag. And DDGS decline is clearly slowed last month, on the one hand, because of low inventory, on the other hand is the ministry of commerce to update the DDGS double inverse dynamic investigation, lead to a weak market slightly narrow.
Cotton pulp has been tepid, wheat prices did not follow the pace of rising soybean meal, prices slightly down; This, of course, and the recent bad weather are aquaculture. The raw material of another "weather" fish meal, also affected by the weather, prices fell sharply since the beginning of August, the pattern of the slack season continues today.
Four, the raw material price is up is down?
Looking back, we continue to analyze two of the most important commodities, soybean meal, corn.
For corn, whether institutions, experts, and even accept food vendors, sell corn farmers, presumably are bullish. Places such as north huanghuai new corn are listed at present, the northeast corn concentration listed until November or so, in the corn storage auction will last until the end of October, is the northeast corn listed before. Market, therefore, treasure to think in this supply, growing corn prices across the country will be into the downlink channel.
In contrast, soybean meal price in the future for a period of time will continue to improve. Bullish market factors not only focus on the beautiful bean, this time the domestic supply and demand in the face of soybean meal price has played a good supporting role. Soybean oil, soybean meal imports to reduce inventory is low, did not perform the contract amount increased, both in soybean meal price in the short term will continue to go up. However, the early stage of the oil sales in October 9 - basis is overmuch, overdraft October market demand, for soybean meal of long-term trend prediction: flower lame shoes, we walk while look!
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